Weather Risks

Move over Dr. William Gray, there's a (relatively) new hurricane forecaster in town.

On Aug. 27, forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford of WSI Corp., which has been providing seasonal forecasts for energy traders since 2000, updated the firm's 2008 Atlantic tropical season forecast. The 2008 forecast continues to call for 15 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four intense hurricanes (category 3 or greater). The forecast numbers are higher than the 1950-2007 averages of 9.7 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 intense hurricanes. And a press release indicates that the forecast derives from the expected continuation of warmer-than-normal Atlantic Ocean temperature anomalies throughout the remainder of the season and the likelihood of a favorable or neutral wind shear environment on the heels of the recent La Niña event.

For his part, Gray -- Colorado State University's 25-year hurricane-forecasting veteran -- and his team project 15 named storms (forming in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30), eight of which are anticipated to develop into hurricanes. Four of those bad boys (or girls, depending) are expected to develop into intense or major hurricanes.

In case you're a weather geek (a safe bet among analytical types, I'd wager) or otherwise interested in this topic beyond its risk-management ramifications, here are the National Weather Service's names of this year's hurricanes (those that have already appeared, and those that may still):

Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gustav
Hanna
Ike
Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paloma
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred

This About.com article, by Renee Chapple helpfully explains how these hurricanes are named.

And here is a wealth of hurricane-related information from Dr. Gray and CSU